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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.