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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|